The Silver Lining

The Silver Lining

Highway deaths fall to lowest level since 1950s

March 13, 2010

The headlines chronicle the economic recovery, unemployment and the war in Iraq and Afghanistan.   Gasoline prices continue to inch up every day while oil prices stay in the $70 to $80 range. The health care battles on in the Congress. 

But there is some good news (you may have missed it)!

The Transportation Department said that the number of traffic deaths in 2009 is down 9 percent to 33,963.  This is the lowest total since 1954. In 2008, 37261 people died on the roadways. These numbers continue the downward trend starting 2005 when 43,510 people died on the road. 

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration credits the decline on more people wearing seat belts (92.2 percent in Texas), programs to discourage drunken driving and safer cars.    Safety features such as side airbags and electronic stability control (helps motorists avoid rollovers) are more common in newer models. 

Anne McCartt, senior vice president for the Insurance institute for Highway Safety says “Vehicles are built to protect people better in crashes now”.

Seat belts, and the associated enforcement by public police officers, have also contributed to the downward trend in roadway fatalities.   States have also cracked down on drunken driving. 

In spite of the progress, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood says “There are still far too many people dying in traffic accidents”.   He goes on to say, “Drivers need to keep their hands on the wheel and their eyes on the road”. 

The federal government has also focused on reducing distractions while driving.  Texting and talking on the cell phone are being vigoruosly pursued by most states. 

Part of the decrease in fatalities is due to the economic recession and the unemployment rate, which has fewer people on the road as many people cut back on the number of discretionary miles.

Benefits of $3 Gasoline

Benefits of $3 Gasoline: The Silver Lining

2/24/2010

People all over the world—and especially the United States—are feeling the strain of higher gasoline and oil prices.  Businesses are going under, or laying off employees, unemployment at a record level, families are struggling to get by; costs seemed to be increasing on just about everything. We see it in the grocery store as prices in our energy rich society continue to spiral upward.  The transportation industry is feeling the pinch as airlines cut the number of flights because of escalating jet fuel costs.  Trucking companies are experiencing unparallel cost as diesel fuel continues to move up.  There are fewer transoceanic vessels on the water today as compared to this time one year ago.  Individual lifestyles are being modified drastically as Americans continue to cope with higher energy costs.

Although most of us are feeling the pinch in a number of ways, there are some positive changes as a result of this energy crisis. 

Consumption:

U.S. highway miles declined in December 2009, but overall mileage for 2009 is up 0.2 percent or about 6.6 million miles according to the Dept. of Transportation.  Although total annual mileage is up, the percent increase is much lower than anticipated.  December mileage was reduced as two major snow storms hit Mid-Atlantic States in December.  The U.S recession kept the number of miles in check as unemployment continues to hamper economic recovery.  New and higher MPG guidelines are also being implemented.

Conservation

Mass transit ridership levels are at a 50-year level.  Many families are discontinuing summer vacation plans altogether, or are reducing their plans and staying closer to home. Staycations have become quite numerous as more and more consumers alter their lifestyles.  The American Automobile Association reported a 1 percent decline in people planning to travel this summer.

Research and Development

More money is being invested in alternative energy such as wind, solar and ocean wave as the economics tip in a more favorable direction. Higher gasoline prices have led to increased investment by auto manufacturers in hybrids and renewable energy fueled vehicles (solar, electric and hydrogen).  Toyota is not the only auto company that is capitalizing on this energy-conscious trend.  For once the Big Three auto manufacturers are jockeying for position in the search for more fuel-efficient autos.  Auto manufacturers are spending over $75 billion on research and development of higher efficiency autos.

Public Safety 

Traffic deaths in 2009 (37313 from the Department of Transportation) are at the lowest level since 1961. This could mean 15,000 fewer people will die in traffic related accidents in 2010.  Less miles-fewer traffic jams.   Less time spent commuting.  More cops on foot patrol as cities and municipalities cut back on expenses.

Transportation

Cambridge Energy Research Associates say sales of new pickups, minivans and SUVs have fallen below 50 percent for the first time since 2001. Delivery trucks are looking for more optimal routes. Southwest Airlines eliminated a number of flights from their schedule.  Company leaders say that more reductions are being considered.  Many cities, particularly in the South and West are rapidly expanding their light rail systems-Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Charlotte, Houston, Austin and Norfolk are investing billions, often with no federal aid. Many companies like AT&T, UPS and Frito-Lay are converting their fleet vehicles to natural gas.  Most states now have (in addition to federal mandates) higher vehicle mileage standards in place.

Lifestyle

People are leaving their car in the garage and walking more.  Exercise leads to healthier lives, more energetic people and fewer sick days. Healthier lifestyles mean lower medical bills.  We’re combining our family errands to maximize our time and our gas budget.  No more separate trips in Mom and Dad’s vehicles.    Online shopping at retailers like JC Penney, Gap and Macy’s have seen a double digit increase in online shopping since 2008.  More companies are allowing employees to work from home while other companies are encouraging flex time.  A growing number of companies are moving toward a 4-day workweek.  The state of Utah has mandated a 4-day workweek for all of its employees.  Most employees have readily adjusted to this change.  Van pool, car pools and company sponsored funding of mass transit passes are flourishing.  Sales of suburban dream homes are declining as more people choose to live closer to their job and family.  Many unemployed Americans have started home-based businesses.

Environment

Less air pollution could prevent 2,200 respiratory-related deaths in the last year according to UC Davis economics professor J. Paul Leigh.  Tom Brokaw, noted anchorman and author, estimates that if the 75 million baby boomers reduced their carbon footprint just 5 percent, we wouldn’t have an energy crisis in 2020.

Oil Imports

The U.S. uses approx. 21 MM bbls per day.  We import almost two thirds of the oil we use.  With oil at $70 barrel, we send $910 million a day to foreign countries.  Every one-cent increase in gasoline prices means Americans pay $1.42 billion more a year for gas, according to Steve Brown, economist at the Federal Reserve Bank.  Staggering isn’t?

Summary

All of us can use this energy crisis to improve our lifestyle.  As difficult as it is for us to trade our SUV in for a more economical mode of transportation­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­, we can use this as incentive to mount a nationwide campaign to eliminate our energy crisis. 

America, our go forward position must:

• Maximize existing energy sources, e.g. oil, natural gas, clean coal, nuclear, hydro and geothermal
• Promulgate conservation and energy efficiency broadly
• Develop cost effective alternative energy sources e.g. solar, wind, ocean, biofuels
• Reduce our dependence on foreign oil
• Drastically reduce carbon emissions

 

All of us-Grandpa and Grandma, sister, brother, daughter, son and their respective families- must become proactive in our energy consumption. Even though the U.S. has about 4 percent of the world’s population, we use approx. 25 percent of the world’s energy.  Status quo is unsustainable.  All U.S. consumers must alter their energy-rich appetites and begin to improve the environment, support our economic recovery and return our country back to the America we have known in the past.  We deserve better and so do our children and grandchildren!

Three Dollar Gasoline

Three Dollar Gasoline

Coming soon to a gas station near you!

February 12, 2010

Most energy analysts think American consumers will continue to see spikes in gasoline prices throughout  2010.  So far this year we have seen average prices for a gallon of unleaded gasoline run up in price to $2.733 in mid-January.  February 2010 has seen a decline in average nationwide prices to $2.669 according to Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service.    According to Lundberg’s, the average price per gallon of unleaded regular fell to $2.67 for the week of February 5, 2010.

Although some states have already pierced the $3.00 per gal plateau this year, (namely California, Hawaii and Alaska due to taxes and local conditions) experts don’t see the nationwide average exceeding $3.00 any time in 2010. 

“We will probably see $3/gal for a national average sometime this year but barring significant unrest in the Middle East, it’s highly unlikely we will see a super spike in retail gasoline prices witnessed in 2008”, said Troy Green,  national spokesman for the American Automobile Association.   

Although forecasting future gasoline prices is a fairly risky business, there are some factors that influence the gasoline price at the pump.  From the supply side:

• Inventories are still significantly large; The Department of Energy and the American Petroleum Institute both reported a substantial increase in gasoline inventories for the week of January 22, 2010.
• Refineries-production is 77 percent of capacity with several east coast refineries in New Jersey and Delaware permanently shut down.
• Oil prices continue in the $70-80 range.
• Drilling rig count-up +18 to 1335 for the week of Feb 5 according to Baker Hughes.

From the demand side:

• Consumption-people are driving less (as reported by the Federal Highway Commission) as the recession continues to effect jobs, manufacturing and standard of living for many consumers.  The Energy Information Agency reports that motor gasoline demand was down0.2% for the week of Jan 15, 2010.
• The economy as a whole is continuing its long, slow recovery as the market sends mixed signals to Wall Street and global investors.
• Weather-cold weather and several winter storms continue to dampen demand; several tankers have been unable to unload at east coast terminals because of heavy snow.   Demand for heating oil will shrink as the temperature warms up in spring.
• World consumption of crude oil-analysts believe the once rock solid demand for crude from China and India may soften as world economies try to recovery from the 2009 recession. 

Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service says “Motorists tend to do less driving in ice and snow, and holiday bills on kitchen counters and empty merchant parking lots on weekdays.  Underemployment levels of greater than 17% also have altered behavior.” 

Although the prospect of rising gasoline prices may not be the same tipping point as we saw in 2008 at $4 gasoline, it has the promise of being a significant influence in 2010 and beyond as the U.S. and the rest of the world try to climb out of the worst recession in years.

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions

March 10, 2010

The battle over carbon dioxide emissions continues to rage throughout the U.S. and the rest of the world.  The environmentalists claim that unless we change our energy-rich life style, the world as we know it will cease to exist.  The companies with large CO2 emissions continue to refute climate warming and green house gases and claim there is no scientific proof that CO2 emissions are harmless to the environment.

In 2008 the U.S. emitted 5,833 million metric tons of CO2.   Per capita, that’s 19.2 metric tons, which happens to be over three times the world average.  Status quo is not sustainable.

What to do?  A consensus from energy experts from the U.S. and elsewhere generally looks like this:

1. No new coal-fired plants anywhere in the world using existing technology.   Not only the U.S. but in India and China especially who will need 40 to 50 new  generation plants just to keep up with their exploding economies.  Global cooperation with researchers, investors and technologies will be needed to create, test and implement new fourth generation technology that can burn coal and generate few (if any) pollutants.
2. Invest in new technology over time to eliminate a significant portion of all pollution (air, water, mercury, etc.) emissions from the burning of coal.  Consider CO2 sequestration, carbon cap and trade, and any other yet to be discovered technologies.  Establish at least one clean coal production facility in the U.S. by 2015 (FutureGen or not).  Use the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 funding as appropriate.  Encourage private and public investors alike.  Divert subsides and incentives from mature energy sources that are not in sync with this plan, such as big oil and ethanol.  Evaluate all reasonable solutions.  Some will work and some won’t.
3. Promulgate this new clean coal technology around the world. Work with Vattenberg and their Brandenburg, Germany, plant to leverage CSS technology.  Actively partner with Norway and the development of their CSS projects.  Export new technology to rapidly developing countries.  This creates new jobs, improves the environment and solves a major energy issue in the shortest possible time.  It won’t be easy.  We all will have to change.
4. The Department of Energy will be the overriding body to direct and coordinate meaningful activities and measure/report progress.  Dr. Chu says he and his team can handle the job and avoid the pitfalls for the political side of the Washington DC .  Include FERC/ NERC/DOI and state regulatory factions as necessary.  Secretary Chu has already announced his support for large scale plans like this to test a number of new and innovative solutions.  A number of coal industry lobbyists and professional organizations have also announced their support for this diverse plan.

 

Summary  

All of us can use this energy crisis to improve our lifestyle.  As difficult as it is for us to trade our SUV in for a more economical mode of transportation, we can use this as an incentive to mount a nationwide campaign to eliminate our energy crisis, improve our environment and recover our economy.

America, our go forward position must:

• Maximize existing energy resources, e.g. oil, clean coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydro and geothermal
• Promulgate conservation and energy efficiency broadly
• Develop cost effective alternative energy sources, e.g. solar, wind, biofuels, ocean, etc.
• Reduce our dependence on foreign oil.
• Drastically reduce carbon emissions.

                All of us-Grandpa and Grandma, sister, brother, daughter, son and their respective families-must            become proactive in our energy consumption.  Even though the U.S. has about 4 percent of the                world’s population, we use approx. 25 percent of the world’s energy.  Status quo is                unsustainable.  All U.S. consumers must alter their energy-rich appetites and begin to improve        the environment, support our economic recovery and return our country back to the America       we have known in the past.  We deserve better and so do our children and grandchildren.

U.S. Economic Recovery

Early Signs in 2010 signal slow economic recovery
March 3, 2010
There are positive signs that the U.S. economy is slowly pulling out of the worst recession since World War II. Although some signs are promising, the U.S. is inexplicably linked to world economy and will not fully cover and prosper for some time.
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Ecomy.com says “It’s going to be a slog. What we have been through is an abyss.”
Some experts fear the downturn has been so deep and so steep and so long that the recovery may falter along the way and lead to a “double dip” recession.
Looking at the early signs:
• First and foremost, new jobs are slowly appearing and unemployment for January 2010 is down slightly from 10.0 to 9.7 percent (Department of Commerce). We all know we have a lot of opportunity in putting America’s workforce back to work. It’s like trying to steer a U.S. aircraft carrier—it starts to turn very slowly, imperceptibly at first, and then gains momentum and begins to turn at a faster rate. Hopefully new jobs creation will build upon our recent infinitesimal progress and start an upward trend for the remaining portion of 2010.
• Housing has been the most affordable it has been in 40 years due to the decline in prices and the low interest rates. Richard DeKyser of Woodley Park Research in Washington DC says, “As home prices stabilize and lenders gain confidence and begin to open up new mortgage packages. New homes starts in January 2010 were 2.8 percent.
• As consumers build confidence that the worst is really behind us, they will restart discretionary spending for luxury items such as apparel, cars, jewelry, etc. Most consumers put these items on hold as they economy started to tank in late 2008.
• Small to medium businesses are starting to make plans for the new year. Some new projects, some new bucks form Washington’s Stimulus program and activities will start to pick up in the last half of 2010.
• New auto sales (especially with Ford and GM) are up surprisingly in double digits growth, e.g. 43 and 12 percent respectively.
• U.S. based companies are seeing encouraging 4Q 2009 earnings, e.g. RadioShack(26%), Lowes(27%), Deere and Co.(up 19%).
• Dow remains in and around 10,000
• Interest rates are remaining low and stable for the foreseeable future.
• Oil is continuing in the $70-80 range.
• The U.S. dollar remains strong.
William Dunkelberg, Chief Economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (NIFB) expects 2010 to be a “sub par” year with growth of 3 percent or less.
Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associate General Contractors of America says the outlook for the construction industry is even worse. He says spending will drop 5 percent in 2010.
Although there are a number of encouraging signs of economic recovery (and there are new indications every day), it’s still too early (way too early) to say “we are out of the woods”. The remaining quarters of 2010 will measure how quickly and how effectively the U.S. (and the world) emerges from the current economic crisis.